Phillies, Dodgers: you’ve heard the hype, you’ve heard “experts” predictions, and you’ve heard players on both sides speak about a potentially long series at hand in this NLCS. You’ve heard that the home team has won every game in the season series and that these teams are so strikingly similar, it might be closer than any series in recent memory.

That’s wrong. This series is going to last 5 games, no more, no less. Which team will take it? My feeling is that the Phillies have every piece going for them at the right time and have players just waiting to bust out (Utley…). But it could very well be the 84-78 NL Garbage Division Champion Dodgers. Either way, we should know the outcome of this series by next Wednesday, right around 11:30pm ET. Just after game 5 has ended.

The Phillies Case for Winning in 5

Granted, the Brewers are a different beast than the Dodgers are, but when you look at the NLDS series against Milwaukee, pitching won it for the Phillies - no question about it. Hamels delivered a gem, possibly establishing himself as a big game pitcher, the true ace of a staff we’ve been anticipating. Myers, after 2 shaky starts to end September, threw a hectic first inning but pitched near perfect the rest of the way. Moyer was the sole question mark, going only 4 innings and getting beat up. He didn’t establish his strike zone, and we all know he needs a generous umpire behind the plate. He didn’t get it versus Milwaukee, but the crafty lefty won’t be rattled. Joe Blanton, starter number 4 to round out the rotation, was all the Phillies could have wanted and more. Strikeouts, ground balls, and he didn’t even work into any major jams that he had to scramble out of. The bullpen was also stellar, with Lidge looking calmer and better as the series went along.

When you look at the hitting, something that has been so inconsistent all year, there were huge home runs (Victorinos slam, Burrell’s 3-run jack), and not much else to score runs. During the Milwaukee series, the Phillies didn’t score a heck of a lot of runs at all. But they got guys on base: by walk, by hitting, and everything else. They had somewhat awful situation hitting, but when it mattered most, they came through in a big way. Look at the plus side: the tone setter, the guy who gets it going, Jimmy Rollins - batting over .350 so far in these playoffs. Compare that to his average well below the Mendoza line last year in October. This team is going to score, they’re going to have a big game or two, and the pieces are falling in place for that to happen. If they rattled Sabathia, they can rattle Billingsley or Kuroda.

People are talking about the Dodgers being the hot team right now, and for the most part, being hot at the right time can propel a team farther than anyone expects. But what happens when that team takes almost a week of play off? Rust, it disturbs the momentum and flow. If the NLCS started the day after they swept Chicago, we would be talking differently. Also, these Phillies, for once, are the more experienced group. Sure, LA has their Manny’ and Lowe’s, but the Phillies aren’t happy at all after last year or even after a first round win - they know the bigger job that needs to get finished.

Lastly, the home crowd is huge. We all know the teams split the series 4-4, the home team winning every time. CBP will be louder than it has ever been tonight and tomorrow, there is no doubt. If the Phillies get on the board first, the Dodgers could get very uptight, wanting the big hits to get back in it too quickly - remember, they didn’t trail Chicago at all. Hamels and Myers have seen these guys before, and the Dodger hitters haven’t faired well against them - especially Manny who hit .212 against the Phils this season. If Hamels and Myers do their job, they are both better pitchers than their counterparts, the Phillies will ride a 2-0 lead to LA. There, I will give the Dodgers a game. But Blanton in game 4 or Hamels in game 5 will shut the door.

The Dodgers Case for Winning in 5

The hot team. It’s what every team strives to be going into the postseason, and not just baseball either. Remember last year’s football Giants? They were 10-6 but were on fire going into the playoffs and won 3 in a row followed by a monumental upset of the evil juggernaut Patriots. But look back to these playoffs: is it coincidence that the Angels, who wrapped up their division in what seems like May, bowed out in the first round in 4 games? They rested players, their mindset was not aggressive, and they faltered. The Dodgers are at the opposite side of the spectrum. Every game for them had been like a playoff game in September as they made up the deficit in the NL West to overtake Arizona. They are hot right now. Sure, the teams they beat in September were the likes of San Fran, San Diego, and other garbage teams who put up no fight, but you win the games you’re supposed to win - and they did that.

The Cubs could have also been too rested and too uptight going into their series against the Dodgers, but give L.A. some credit. They got hitting from 1-8 in their lineup and their pitchers shut down an extremely potent lineup. Derek Lowe, game 1 starter tonight, didn’t look overpowering at all, but he got the outs and carried his team to an easy win. They won on the road and they won at home. Obviously, there’s the Manny factor. You may despise the guy’s attitude and work ethic that we see during games, but he’s a stud in October. Any given at bat he can send the ball out of the park to completely change the dynamics of the game. And with Furcal back, and hitters like James Loney, Matt Kemp and Blake DeWitt around him, that’s a very underrated lineup.

Home field now comes into play. As mentioned, the series starts tonight in Philly. If the Dodgers get a stellar showing from Lowe again (he is 2-0 with a sub 2.50 ERA at CBP) and enough runs to steal game one, panic will set in around the Delaware Valley and the series will change dramatically. People will start ranting and wondering where the big bats are. People will ask what Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have done if they continue to struggle (each batting sub .200 so far). This team is resilient like no other I have seen in years. They can put up a 5 spot in the 9th inning at anytime - they just don’t quit. But in the playoffs, against these Dodgers pitchers, that’s going to be leagues harder to accomplish. L.A. may not have the star power in their rotation, but they are solid and they shut down the Phillies bats to a tune of a sub .240 average in the 8 games this season. Jonathon Broxton is also a very good closer.

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A lot of this series rests on the shoulders of Lowe and Hamels tonight. The Dodgers could very well bring back Lowe in game 4 on just three days rest if they need him, but a strong outing and a win tonight sets the table. This series is going to be shorter than people think, 5 games to be exact. I have a feeling that the team that sets the tone tonight will take it. If Utley can brake out. If Hamels can dominate. If Manny continues to rise…or fall like he has against the Phils. If the bottom of the lineup on either team contributes. If either bullpen should falter. All of these edges seem to favor Philly - and that’s why I think I’ll take them in 5.

NLCS Schedule

Game 1: Dodgers at PHILLIES, Thursday Oct. 9, FOX, 8:22 p.m.

Game 2: Dodgers at PHILLIES, Friday Oct. 10, FOX, 4:35 p.m.

Game 3: PHILLIES at Dodgers, Sunday Oct. 12, FOX, 8:22 p.m.

Game 4: PHILLIES at Dodgers, Monday Oct. 13, FOX, 8:22 p.m.

*Game 5: PHILLIES at Dodgers, Wednesday Oct. 15, FOX, 8:22 p.m.*

*Game 6: Dodgers at PHILLIES, Friday Oct. 17, FOX, 8:22 p.m

*Game 7: Dodgers at PHILLIES, Saturday Oct. 18, FOX, 8:22 p.m.