October: Impossible to Predict (I’ll Try) September 30, 2008
Posted by Aaron in MLB, National, Phillies, baseball.Tags: MLB, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs, mlb 2008, Boston Red Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, mlb 2008 playoffs, NLDS, ALDS, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles Dodgers, mlb playoff schedule, fox, tbs
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Jim “my wife is my rock” Thome (I hope you Phils fans remember that classic press conference) jacked a mammoth homer to lift the South Siders into the playoffs by a 1-0 score and thus completing the 8 team post-season field. In the AL: Angels, White Sox, Rays, and Red Sox. In the NL: Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies, and Brewers.
When I look at what to try and breakdown first, I remind myself of something paramount: Major League Baseball playoffs are remarkably difficult to predict. Out of the 4 main sports, no other sport comes close to the inexplicable moments, the ridiculous upsets, and surprise champions that baseball presents year in, year out. Football? There’s almost always a 1 or 2 seed matching up. Basketball? It was Lakers, Celtics, gimme a break. Hockey? Now, hockey comes the closest, but still doesn’t match the sheer unknown of the baseball playoff landscape. Remember the Seattle Mariners in 2001, the team that won an MLB record 116 games? They survived the Indians in 5 games and then got smoked in the ALCS in 5 games. That’s inexplicable. That’s just unbelievable. That’s playoff baseball.
So, with that, here’s a quick look at each of the 4 LDS series with predictions of course. I wouldn’t be shocked if the 4 teams I choose to win all lose, the parity right now in the sport is unbelievable. Here goes…
ALDS: White Sox v. Rays
Young versus old, experienced versus the newbies, been there and done that versus eyes wide open. This series couldn’t pit teams that are more different than the south siders and the upstart Rays. The White Sox are in the playoffs for the first time since winning it all just a few years back, and this might be their last good shot in quite a while. The core of this team is old and Griffey Jr, Dye, and Thome could be making their last push for a ring. On the other hand, the Rays are still a surprise to many. Who are these kids, and what have they done with our beloved losing Devil Rays of years past? Well, when you have Longoria and Upton and a ridiculously good starting rotation, success finally came. So, where’s the edge?
The young power hitting is nice, but pitchers like James Shields are what make the Rays scary good. (AP/TampaBay.com)
The difference in this series is what separates the winners in October from the losers: starting pitching. I saw John Danks throw 8 scoreless innings tonight in a huge game, but can he do that again? Tampa’s pitchers: James Sheilds 14-8, Edwin Jackson 14-11, Andy Sonnanstine 13-9, and Percival at the end have all been so good and so consistent. These kids can pitch and while they don’t score a lot of runs as compared to some other AL teams, they won over 95 games for a reason. The White Sox are a home run hitting team, like the Phillies last year (and somewhat this year too). I don’t expect Chicago to get rattled if they drop the opening 2 in Tampa, but I do expect the Rays to show that experience won’t matter in this series.
Rays in 5
ALDS: Red Sox v. Angels
Talk about starting pitching, my goodness. Take a look at the probable pitching match-ups for the first 3 games of this series…Game 1: John Lackey (12-5) v John Lester (16-6), Game 2: Ervin Santana (16-7) v Dice-K (18-3), Game 3: Josh Beckett (12-10) v Joe Saunders (17-7). Are you kidding me? The game three starters are a world series MVP and a 17 game winner? Need I mention K-Rod on the Angels who broke the single-season save record, or Papelbon who’s closed out a world series clincher on his own? Expect low numbers, very, very low numbers in these games.
These two teams are more similar than you would think looking at them on paper. You’d think of Boston as the big bats with Ortiz, Drew (who will play), and Youkilis - he set career highs in just about everything. But they’re deceptively fast, good baserunners, and can play good small ball. Dustin Pedroia made his MVP case racking up 213 hits and Ellsbury is a man possessed when he gets on base. The Angels counter with their own small ball: after all, this team was 10th in the AL in runs scored. But they play efficient baseball - they move runners over and they get them in. What could separate this series is if one starter gets rocked for some reason unexpectedly. Otherwise, these teams are both experienced and know how to get it done. If there’s any edge, it’s to the Angels, who have the first 2 at home and a possible game 5 - that will probably be necessary.
Angels in 5
NLDS: Dodgers v. Cubs
The Dodgers are this years Rockies - that team playing the right kind of baseball at exactly the right time of year. Except…they aren’t as talented. Don’t get me wrong, this is a good team in LA, but the Rockies had it all going last year - power, speed, starting pitching, and relief. Look at the teams the Dodgers faced in their crucial month of September: San Diego (three times), Arizona, Colorado, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco (twice) - just one of those teams finished the season above .500, Arizona at 82-80. You win the games you’re supposed to win, they did that, but Chicago is a different beast.
Manny has been money in L.A., but Cubbies pitching should silence the dreads (REUTERS/Phil McCarten/Daylife.com)
Chicago’s first 3 starters: Ryan Dempster 17-6 (14-3 at home), Carlos Zambrano 14-6 (no hitter few weeks back), and Rich Harden 10-2. Uh, yikes. Chicago won 5 of 7 this year from the Dodgers, including 2 games in LA. But while this could be a quick 3 game sweep preparing for the NLCS, remember, playoff baseball…..ah nevermind, Cubs are just better with pitching and with hitting. The Dodgers won the awful NL West, their pitching isn’t all that great, and I don’t think I’m going to even give them the gentleman’s one win here.
Cubs in 3
NLDS: Brewers v. Phillies
Everyone is picking the Phils to take this series in 4 games which makes me completely and utterly nervous. Remember last year? All the experts said Phillies in 3 or 4, their offense is just too potent for the nice feeling story that were the Rockies. A sweep later, and a no show from Utley, Howard, and just about everyone else, it was one and done after 14 years out of October for Philadelphia. This year is remarkably different, and not just because those same hitters have the experience of last year and are still, well, good hitters. The pitching is what makes the Phillies this year. Jamie Moyer, age 45, is winning, winning, winning. Joe Blanton, after 85 no-decisions, is 4-0 and doing well. It’s truly unreal how the strengths of this team have shifted. They also caught a tremendous break when Ben Sheets was declared out for the year. This leaves just CC as the Brewers pitching, and he can’t pitch every single day.
Expect Chase Utley to thrive on mainly right-handed pitching and make 2007's October a distant memory (AP/PennLive.com)
The Brewers have a tremendous offense: Ryan Braun hits for average and power, Price Fielder even with a down year had some pop during the stretch run, and guys like Corey Hart and JJ Hardy are tenacious at the plate and can scorch some pitches too. But even with that offense, it all comes back to pitching. And it all comes back to September. The Phillies have Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Ryan Madson, and Brad Lidge. The Brewers have CC, and uh…Eric Gagne? I’m not saying it’s a shutout that’s going to happen every game, that’s ridiculous. We’ve seen Cole not handle high pressure situations like an ace, but when he doesn’t handle it, he still gives the team a chance to win. Giving up 4 runs over 5 innings is a struggled outing for him, but this Phillies offense can kick this series in the butt at any time. The Phillies also had the better month of September, and as it is in any sport, playing hot going into the post-season is crucial - something the Brewers did not do at all.
Phillies in 4
Bottom line - anything at all can happen. Enjoy October.
NFL Week 4 Picks (and a little Phils!) September 28, 2008
Posted by Aaron in Eagles, Football, NFL, National.Tags: NFC East, Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, NFL, NL East, Philadelphia Eagles, Philadelphia Phillies, Dallas Cowboys, Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, NFL 2008, upset, Tennessee Titans, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, adrian peterson, Picks, jay cutler
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First of all….WOOOOOO!!!!! Congratulations to the 2008 National League East Champions, the Philadelphia Phillies! Back to back division champs. We here at the ADD Show are ecstatic to say the least, and having watched and covered this team since spring training (we were there too), it’s clear that this October should be much different than last year. We’ll have complete 2008 MLB Playoff coverage starting early this week. Congrats Fightins!
And now, a little football…
Season Up To Date:
Dave: 31 -16 (upsets: 3-0)Â Â Â Â Â Â -
Aaron: 29 - 18 (upsets: 2-1)Â Â 2gb
BYE: DETROIT…INDIANAPOLIS…MIAMI…NEW ENGLAND…NY GIANTS…SEATTLE
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
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WHEW! Phils Defend Division Dramatically September 27, 2008
Posted by Dave in Philadelphia, Phillies.Tags: Brad Lidge, Jimmy Rollins, Phillies, Shane Victorino
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Jamie Moyer won his 16th game on Saturday, clinching the NL East title for the Phils and apparently lost his dentures in the process (Tom Mihalek/AP).
It’s funny how something as awesome as winning the division can’t get old. Granted it’s only the second straight year the Phils have conquered the NL East, the display was just as incredible as it was last season.
The scene was a bit different than it was 362 days ago when the Phillies won their first playoff berth since 1993. this time Brett Myers was in warmups in the Phillies dugout rather than tossing his glove in the air in jubilation.
Brad Lidge continued his excellency getting his 41st save of the season (we can only hope that somewhere Billy Wagner is sobbing). He did momentarily think about blowing it. He allowed the bases to load with only one out and remarkably threw a ball to Ryan Zimmerman that ended up being a ground ball double play to end the game.
Jamie Moyer got the Phils in excellent position. He allowed six hits in six innings and surrendered only one run. He got one strikeout and allowed one walk. Interestingly enough it was Moyer who started the game last year on Sept. 30, clinching the Phillies first title in 14 years. He allowed only one run during that game as well. Who did he beat? The Nationals. Talk about deja vu.
An interesting play happened in the eigth inning when Jimmy Rollins made a phenomenal catch over his shoulder. But it may have come at a cost. He collided with center fielder Shane Victorino in shallow center. Although Jimmy held onto the ball, Victorino lay in a heap for a couple minutes with his glove over his face in clear frustration. He got up limping, but returned to the game. After the game was over FOX showed a shot of him limping down the tunnel. Hopefully there won’t be any lingering effect for the center fielder who went 3-for-4 this afternoon.
You never want to see players injured in celebration, and the Phillies are no exception. Taking no chances, Chris Coste and Pedro Feliz paraded around the warning track on bicycles that belonged to Philadelphia police officers. Ryan Howard sat shotgun as Jayson Werth drove a cart around the field. Hey, if the Phillies are lazy doing anything, at least it’s celebrating.
It is yet to be seen whether they’ll play the Brewers or the Dodgers in the first round of the playoffs. That will be decided tomorrow.
Let’s Read Together September 26, 2008
Posted by Aaron in Philadelphia.Tags: Philadelphia Eagles, Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Bears, elton brand, ed stefanski, New York Mets, NFL 2008, Brett Favre, Milwaukee Brewers, Washington Nationals
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You know, there’s a lot going on in the world of sports right now: baseball playoff runs, the Mets potential annual collapse, week 3 in the NFL, upsets in the college football world, and Lance Armstrong is coming back again. Alright, well, I don’t care for that last one so much. But we’ve written a lot on here, I think it’s time to get some other perspectives on the pressing issues on these times we live in. Not politics, who cares about that, right?! We’re talking sports. To the blogosphere!
- Apparently, the Bears beat the Eagles last year. I tried to forget that, thanks guys. While the Birds are a hell of a lot better this time around, don’t forget the mistakes. [Iggles Blog]
- The last weekend of the MLB year is here. Want pitching match-ups, times, and weather reports (damn rain..) for the Mets, Phils, and Brewers? Oh, you got it. [We Should Be GM's]
- Be honest, like me, you could go through life happily without hearing one piece of news about the Washington Nationals. But this weekend, it’s pretty necessary. Good interview here with a head Nationals blog (I didn’t know those existed). [Balls, Sticks & Stuff]
- Tell me you haven’t forgotten about our Sixers? Remember when we signed Elton Brand…yea, that was a good day. Let’s smother some praise on the front office. This team is dangerous. [Passion and Pride]
- Ever wondered what goes through Brett Favre’s mind, before he throws an interception or bad incompletion? Me too. Luckily, we have a first hand account. (NSFW) [Kissing Suzy Kolber]
Remember, reading is essential to…learning and all that. Plus, this is about sports, it shouldn’t be that bad. Go Phils, go Cubs, and lets go Marlins!! We’ll see you soon for some week 4 NFL picks.
NFL Week 3 Picks September 20, 2008
Posted by Dave in NFL, Philadelphia.Tags: Donovan McNabb, Green Bay Packers, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Jets, NFL 2008, Brett Favre, New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings, Tom Brady, adrian peterson, matt cassel, monday night football, Terrell Owens, peyton manning, aaron rodgers
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Season Up To Date:
Aaron: 19 - 12 (upsets: 2-0)
Dave: 20 -11 (upsets: 2-0)
Bye: NONE
Sunday, September 22
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Monday, September 22
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Around the Blogosphere September 18, 2008
Posted by Dave in Eagles, Flyers, Philadelphia, Phillies.Tags: Eagles, Flyers, Phillies, Scottie Upshall, trevor laws
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Here at The ADD Show, we haven’t given as much props as we should to our friends around the blogosphere. To be honest, a couple of Temple kids in their senior year have a tough time finding the time to be as creative and entertaining as our blogging counter-parts, so here is a ‘best of’ list from the friends of The ADD Show.
- Scottie Upshall is playing his cards right heading into training camp [The 700 Level].
- Inside the Iggles analyzes the Birds loss to the Cowgirls [Inside the Iggles].
- Apparently ‘Campaign Cheer’ worked like a charm [We Should Be GM's].
- Trevor Laws’ lineage traces back to bad insurance commercials [All Philadelphia Sports].
Check back soon for our Week 3 picks.
Richie’s Rich, And Our Captain Too September 17, 2008
Posted by Dave in Flyers, Philadelphia.Tags: NHL, Mike Richards, Philadephia Flyers, Captain
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Mike Richards is expected to take on a new role as the team's leader this season, after last year's breakout season. (The Hockey News)
The Flyers will name Mike Richards the team’s 17th captain tomorrow at a press conference. The move comes following the 12-year $69 million contract extension that the forward signed in the middle of last season. The move to don the ‘C’ on Richards’ jersey will likely be popular among fans as he is a fan favorite (and from what we hear, a heartthrob).
Last season Richards finally took the form that the Flyers expected, leading the team with 75 points. He provided clutch goals and wore his ‘A’ with pride in his first season of assistant captaincy providing some much needed leadership to a young Flyers club.
With the announcement of Richards’ captaincy, new jerseys are sure to fly off the shelves of local retail stores. New third jerseys are expected to come out later this month or early October. Sources tell The ADD Show the jersey will look “very similar” to these VERY low-resolution pictures.Â
NFL Week 2 Picks September 12, 2008
Posted by Aaron in Football, NFL, National, Philadelphia.Tags: aaron rodgers, adrian peterson, Brett Favre, Dallas Cowboys, Donovan McNabb, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, matt cassel, Minnesota Vikings, monday night football, New England Patriots, New York Jets, NFL, NFL 2008, peyton manning, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Terrell Owens, Tom Brady
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Season Up To Date:
Aaron: 10 - 6 (upsets: 1-0)
Dave: 10 -6 (upsets: 1-0)
Bye: NONE
Sunday, September 14
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Monday, September 15
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But Lord knows, I’ve been wrong before. Go Birds!
Brady’s Injury Good for the NFL September 8, 2008
Posted by Aaron in NFL, National.Tags: AFC East, Brett Favre, injury, matt cassel, New England Patriots, New York Jets, NFL, NFL 2008, Randy Moss, super bowl, Tom Brady
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If you haven’t heard, some quarterback on the Patriots is out for the entire 2008 season. I’m not sure, but I think he was the MVP, set the touchdown record, and led his team to a 16-0 regular season last year. Oh yeah, Tom Brady, that guy.
Since the GQ cover boy (just a fun joke, I respect him as a very good football player) went down early in Sunday’s game verse Kansas City, everyone is talking about two things: the Patriots rallying around this moment of possible panic, and the damage this does for the NFL. I firmly disagree with both of those sentiments.
Brady's injury opens the door very wide for a ton of teams (Photo: Winslow Townson -- Associated Press)
The first point the ‘experts’ bring up is that the Patriots will use this injury as a tool, as motivation and bulletin board material. They’re predicting in the area of 12 wins, instead of a Brady-led 14-16, and a certain playoff berth. But let’s hold on one second. Whenever you lose the face of your franchise it’s devastating. But add on top that you lost the most important player on the field, the quarterback, then you’re in crisis mode. I don’t care how highly the Patriots staff and players believe in Matt Cassel, there’s one glaring fact that remains: he is not Tom Brady and he will never be Tom Brady. He hasn’t started a game in nearly a decade with his last starting gig coming in high school. With an average quarterback, the Patriots struggled to hold off the Chiefs on Sunday, 17-10. Yikes. And with that average quarterback the rest of the 2008 season, the Pats will have to rely even more on the running game and an aging defense: two things that opposing teams can now pinpoint for attack. People say the pre-season doesn’t matter, but I disagree. This team went 0-4 and the defense looked its age. Without Brady they still have talent to win, but not as many times as they’ve become accustomed to. I give them 9-10 wins, maybe a wild card.
The second point people are bringing up is that Brady’s injury is bad for not just New England, but the entire league. Sure, the guy brings good ratings, and yes, he is occasionally good for a highlight reel by himself. But if you aren’t from New England, take a step back and look at the big picture. The Patriots haven’t been a dynasty, but they’re the closest the NFL has had since the Cowgirls in the mid 90’s. They haven’t strung together 3 Super Bowls in a row or something to that sort, but each year they’re a scary threat. They went undefeated last year: something only one other team can say in NFL history. But again, take that step back and look at the field now. With Brady gone, the Patriots become an above average AFC team. And in a conference with the Chargers, Colts, Jaguars, Steelers, Broncos, and Jets (same division) looking to make a playoff run, the door has swung wide open for each and every one of those teams.
Every team in the AFC can set its sights on the Super Bowl in Tampa this year and not have to worry about the Patriots lurking in the distance. The Chargers were one win away in 2007, and granted they lost their opener to Carolina, I guarantee they’ll be in the mix in December/January. What this injury allows ultimately is more fun in the NFL. More and more teams are going to start believing they can win, and this is a wide open field across the board. The NFC has some strong contenders too in the Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, Vikings, and Saints.
In the end, the bottom line is that injuries are a part of the game. Football is the most physical and brutal sport out there, and players go down every Sunday, sometimes career ending. The good news for Tom Brady is that he’ll most likely be back in 2009 and the confidence for a Patriots Super Bowl run will be renewed. But for this year at the very least, the NFL is wide open - the trophy is up for grabs. The chance for so many teams to end on top has increased because of it, and that’s good for the fans, and good for the NFL.

