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Number One Stunner May 14, 2008

Posted by Aaron in Philadelphia.
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From starter to bullpen and back again, Brett Myers has pitched in every scenario you can think of. After spending last year in the bullpen, and converting 21 of 24 save opportunities, the team needed another arm in the starting rotation. Back to the 5-man rotation was the 29 year old Myers who’s last year as a starter was in the 2006 season, in which he finished 12-7 with a 3.91 ERA. But make no mistake about it, this year’s opening day starter hasn’t found his stuff at all just yet. The pitcher from 2005 and 2006, in which he tallied 25 combined wins, is not the pitcher that lost again tonight against Atlanta.

Baseball is an complicated and confusing game at points. The Phillies are a perfect example of stats that just make you scratch your head and leave you speechless. Last year in 2007 the bullpen was a work in progress for most of the entire year (things finally got figured out in September; good timing). People shuffled in and out and the starting 5, led by Hamels 15 wins, got the job done for the most part. This year it’s the bullpen that’s turning heads, leading the league in bullpen ERA. The starters however, Myers included, have struggled. Myers is off to a slow start to put it nicely and if this team wants to contend into October again, they’re going to need their number 1 starter to turn it around in a hurry.

Myers entered tonight’s game with a 2-3 record, but to find out what’s gone wrong let’s back up a bit to his first few starts. The very first game of the season was March 31st against the Washington Nationals. Obviously, the Phillies entered the game with sky high expectations after they had won their first division crown in more than a decade. Myers pitched well for 4 innings and threw most of his pitches for strikes, but he didn’t go far enough. He allowed 4 runs in the 5th and was yanked before recording an out in the 6th and had allowed another run. His night ended with a line of 5 IP - 5 H - 4 R - 2 SO. As noted, he was pitching a lot of strikes, finishing up with a good ratio of 59 strikes to just 27 balls. But his fastball wasn’t as effective as we had seen it in the past. The location was a problem as it was consistently right down the middle, and the gas wasn’t all there.

Fast forward a few days to Cincinnati where Brett made his second start of the year. This time you didn’t have to wait for the 5th inning for things to go bad, as the Reds scored 2 runs in the bottom frame of the 1st. Again, he went just 5 innings and again he gave up 4 runs. Another good thing was the strike to ball ratio: good again at 59 to 36. But his fastball was still giving him problems and that’s his out pitch. But this game foreshadowed what we saw tonight against Atlanta: giving up the home run ball. In that start in Cincinnati he allowed 2 round trippers, and after a few more tonight he’s up to a league leading 15 allowed; certainly cause for concern.

It’s not as is Brett Myers is lost, not at all. This guy knows how to pitch and we saw it from his rookie debut against Mark Prior back in 2002 all the way up until his stint last year in the pen. But there are a lot of concerns about his ability, or lack there of thus far, to command a game or go deep at all. You can’t say enough about the damage of giving up home runs does to a pitcher’s psyche. And right now there’s nobody who lets more people stroll around the bases than Myers. He’s leaving balls over the plate and his fastball is flat and practically being served up for batters to hack at right down the middle. Just for comparison’s sake, in 2005 he allowed 31 home runs and 29 in 2006. As mentioned, he’s already let 15 leave the yard and if you do the math over a projected season, well…it’s not pretty. Another few things to worry about if you’re Charlie Manuel or Rich Dubee are the spots where he’s putting balls and the jams he can’t get out of. Starting with the location: his off speed stuff has gotten a lot better over his major league career, but his fastball has always been that out pitch. That isn’t the case this year. His fastball is the one that maybe he’s throwing too much or is too predictable when he does throw it. Hitters lock into it and control what used to be a very hard pitch to handle. His fastball was never a ridiculous speed like 99 or so, but even while it topped out in the low to mid 90’s, the location was key. Maybe a bit more mixing up of his fastball will help the predictability and lower his career high 5.91 ERA.

The second thing there that could pose a problem is the inability to get out of a jam. As mentioned, this year has been a parallel world to last year’s Phillies club. The bullpen is coming up huge. Just last week Flash Gordon inherited the bases loaded with nobody out and got out of it unscathed. This year the bullpen has had to be on top of their game because of the mediocre starting pitching in front of them. Myers hasn’t shown the ability to go deep and that’s greatly attributed to high pitch counts in the 90’s and consistently being unable to get that last out. In those games I looked at, against Washington and Cincinnati, he went just 5 innings each outing. Tonight against Atlanta was more of the same as he finished just 4 1/3 innings. The Phillies bullpen has been outstanding as a group this year but you can’t be happy relying on them to save you come September and October.

Adam Eaton went over a month without a decision. Kyle Kendrick started 0-2 and had people wondering how he ever got it done last year. Even Cole Hamels struggled early. The starting pitching hasn’t been there for the Phillies and their opening day starter Brett Myers is one of those guys who’s struggling. After tonight, he’s 2-4 with an ERA near 6. Make no mistake, there’s nobody who’s angrier than Myers himself. This guy wears his emotions on his sleeve and will watch tape and work with Rich Dubee to figure out what’s gone wrong with his mechanics in 2008. The Phillies expected more than this and Myers wants to give them that winning pitching he was accustomed to in the past. But if the Phillies want to stay right there in the suddenly wild National League East race, they’re going to need the big guy to find his pitching, find his fastball, and get better with each and every start from here on out.

photo from The Zo Zone at PhillyNews.com

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