NBA 07-08 Season Preview October 29, 2007
Posted by Aaron in Philadelphia.trackback
I think football has become America’s favorite pastime. It’s overwhelming how popular it is, it’s very remarkable (I’m one of those football freaks myself. People still love the original pastime as well: baseball. There’s nothing like it, and it’s our game. Throw in college football and basketball- 2 more immensely popular sports. What are we left with…let’s see…hockey (gets television ratings worse than bowling), soccer (you gotta be kidding), and the NBA. What happened to the NBA? While growing up, basketball was probably my favorite sport, and for good reason. You had Michael Jordan and the Bulls dynasty: a high scoring, ridiculously talented dynasty. You had big centers that you knew were destined for the hall of fame in their primes: Ewing, Olajuwon, and Montross. Everything was great. I’m not sure what happened, but the NBA has taken a nose dive. Television ratings are down, attendance is down, and general popularity just isn’t the same as it used to be. Maybe it’s the referee scandals. Maybe it’s the unlikeable players. Maybe it’s that the dynasty is the Spurs: the most “boring” team in years. Sure they do everything right, but they score 80 points a game. Maybe it’s a foul being called every 5 seconds; they don’t let the players play anymore. And maybe it’s the blatant showboating and individuals yearning for personal achievement and praise (yes, you Kobe).
So the baseball season is officially over, and hockey is an afterthought for much of the country. The only professional sport going right now is football. But when we aren’t watching 9 hours of games on Sundays, and then when the season is finally over in February, what the hell are we supposed to do? I guess…we watch the NBA? Well, if you’re gonna watch, you might as well know what the outlook is. Here’s how I see the 07-08 NBA season unfolding…
EASTERN CONFERENCE (aka: junior varsity)
( in order of predicted finish)
Atlantic Division
1. New Jersey - Kidd, Carter, Jefferson. Even with a coach who looks like he’s a pudgy child, they’ve consistently won and won in big games. If their big 3 stay healthy for the most part, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t win this division again. Let’s not forget, this is the team that went to the finals 2 years in a row just a little while back.
2. Boston - I hate putting them this high because you just don’t know how well 3 huge players who shoot as much as they do will mesh (Garnett, Allen, Pierce). But adding KG and Ray Allen can’t hurt a team. Not even Doc Rivers and Danny Ainge can screw this season up with that starting lineup. I don’t think they’ll be outstanding, like some people are hinting, but they’ll be a very good team.
3. Toronto - This team is young and well coached. They showed a lot by turning a franchise on the decline completely around to a playoff team last year. With Bosh on his way to another All-Star season, they should have a nice year. But will Bargnani step up and make a big leap to become a great compliment to Bosh? Will the addition of free agent Jason Kapono have a big impact on the perimeter? All questions that we will see answers to in the first month.
4. Philadelphia - People seem to be overlooking the fact that this basketball team was over .500 without Iverson last year. Was that a flash in the pan? It’s certainly possible. Mo Cheeks has a very, very young team to mold, Miller and Iguodala need to lead this team each and every game. With a big question mark at center (Sami Dalembert), they might finish around .500, but nothing better. The process of rebuilding continues.
5. New York - The Knicks have had quite the lead up to the season opener, with the media all over Isiah Thomas’ court hearing. Will that have any effect on the team? No, but the lack of talent will. This team isn’t rebuilding, they’re not good enough, and will finish dead last.
Central Division
1. Chicago - Assuming the trade for Kobe doesn’t happen, this is a fantastic basketball team. They have young talent that are all blossoming at the same times. Heinrich, Deng, and Gordon are an unbelievable trio, and Ben Wallace cant possibly be as mediocore as he was last season. This team was a playoff team last year, but with young guys they struggled against experience. Expect them back in the mix and to go farther this year.
2. Detroit - Shocked by Cleveland last year, this team will be back and again hungry for a Finals run. You just can’t argue with the talent they have in Richard Hamilton, Chauncey Billups, and Tayshaun Prince. Their bench is probably the deepest in the conference. This is a seasoned team, and the regular season should be warm-ups for another deep playoff push.
3. Cleveland - After reaching the NBA finals last year thanks to LeBron and LeBron alone, I see a big step downward for the Cavs. LeBron could end up looking like Kobe: the only player doing anything on the team. They haven’t resigned 2 key players, including Varejao, who brings energy to the court day in day out. Big Z is getting too old to compete against the versatile big men of this league too.
4. Milwaukee - This is the Michael Redd show. Although Redd is a great player, an All-Star, he doesn’t have the same command to take over a game like LeBron or Kobe can. Bogut has been incredibly underwhelming, and the bench isn’t very deep or very good for the Bucks. It should be interesting to see Yi Jianlian get into the flow of things though.
5. Indiana - This is the same team that traded away Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington to Golden State for Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy, Jr. Ouch. While that might have been necessary with their off court problems, they didn’t get a hell of a lot back. This team is lacking in chemistry, scorers, and they gave a great coach the boot. The Pacers are going to have a lot of problems this year.
Southeast Division
1. Miami - Let’s remember that this team, which has stayed mostly the same since, won the NBA finals a few years ago. As long as Shaq and Wade can stay relatively healthy, they should own this division.
2. Washington - I love how Gilbert Arenas plays; full of confidence, bordering on cockiness, but he still gets his teammates involved. I love the play of Caron Bulter, whether he’s starting or coming off the bench. But that’s about all I love. They have no great big man, and we all saw what happened in the playoffs when they didn’t have the 2 big guns.
3. Orlando - Dwight Howard could easily average a double-double, heck, he’s gonna have some triple-double nights too (blocks or assists for that third one). What a player. But Orlando never seems to have the firepower to put away a Detroit or a Cleveland in a tight game. They’re good, but they just aren’t as talented or athletic as division and conference foes.
4. Atlanta - It still boggles my mind why Joe Johnson left the Suns for the Hawks. Playing for the Hawks is a guaranteed ticket to sitting out of the postseason. They haven’t gotten much better. Most people can’t even name 2 players on this team. That’s never a good sign.
5. Charlotte - Unlike their cities’ NFL expansion team, the Carolina Panthers who went to the playoffs after just a year in the league, this basketball team will continue to play like a first year expansion team. They have good players, but with Morrison out for the year already, they’ve taken a big hit. Okafor can’t score like Dwight Howard despite his dominance on the glass, and the entire team plays defense on seldom occasion.
WESTERN CONFERENCE (aka: the real teams)
Northwest Division
1. Denver - After the team traded for Iverson last year, they struggled getting into a flow. But they did reach the playoffs on a bit of a streak, only to be handed the Spurs in the first round. Carmelo and AI should be able to put up big numbers again, and with the reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year (Camby) and up and coming star guard Steve Blake, this should be a good season for George Karl’s bunch.
2. Utah - Wow, nobody saw that run last year coming. Losing to San Antonio is something a lot of teams do, so they should take pride in the huge steps they made. Kirilenko or not, this team has the weapons to compete in an ultra competitive conference. Deron Williams has become a star.
3. Portland - Yes, the number 1 pick Greg Oden is out for the year. But these guys aren’t going to fold. They made some good moves like getting rid of Zach Randolph who was an unproductive problem of a player. Brandon Roy, reigning Rookie of the Year, will continue to improve his game, but without much more around him, they will really struggle against the big teams in the west.
4. Minnesota - Garnett is out: the all-time Minnesota leading scorer, rebounder, blocker, etc etc etc. You take a guy like that out of the mix, on an already mediocore team like the Wolves are, and they have nowhere to go but down.
5. Seattle - They might as well move to Oklahoma City now. The owner wants the team to move. They don’t have a new stadium. They don’t have Ray Allen anymore. Kevin Durant is the big attraction, but once fans realize how bad this team is overall, they’ll wish they didnt even have a pro team.
Pacific Division
1. Phoenix - Steve Nash makes this team go, and no matter what players have been plugged into their system the past 3 years, they have continued to excel. They need to make the leap past the Spurs, the only team in the west that has their number. But with a lineup featuring Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Steve Nash, Raja Bell, and Leandro Barbosa, well…you can’t expect to stop these guys. If their defense is even slightly improved, they have a real shot at the Spurs. But they’re also fine with their usual up and down the floor, fast paced style.
2. LA Clippers - The Clippers made the playoffs! Yea, that trend lasted for just the one year, as last year they returned to usual mediocre Clipper form. But this team has talent in Brand and others, and should rebound well enough to fend off the other LA team.
3. LA Lakers - This team has 1 player; Kobe. He’s selfish, he’s a ballhog, he brings a lot of baggage too. Assuming he doesn’t get traded, expect more of what you saw last year out of this team: one guy playing and 4 teammates watching him. It’s painful to watch as a fan, seeing how the Lakers have some talent in guys like the little Walton.
4. Warriors - Sorry, but I just don’t see last year happening again. The west is too tough a place to pull off miraculous runs 2 straight years. Re-signing coach Nelson was a big move, he’s the best asset they have, but it won’t be enough.
5. Kings - One of their few stars, Mike Bibby, is out with a fracture in his hand to start the season. Not a good omen for a team with a new coach, a fading fan base, and John Salmons starting. A long season ahead for the Kings.
Southwest Division
1. San Antonio - What more can you say than what’s been said already? This is the NBA dynasty of our times and they haven’t lost anything from the meat of what made their championship teams. Duncan is getting better and better with age surprisingly, and the role players are incredible. Tony Parker, Manu Ganobili…the list could go on, but no matter who you put in, this team plays smart, sound basketball. They won’t lose much at all.
2. Dallas - Embarrassing. That’s the only word to sum up their season last year. What a fantastic regular season, again with 60+ wins, but gone in the first round of the playoffs to the 8 seed Warriors. This team has weapons, weapons, and more weapons. They can score almost as much as the Suns can, and their defense continues to improve. They should be hungry for success throughout the season after last year’s debacle of an ending.
3. Houston - This team has the right role players for all the right positions. With Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming playing healthy, this team becomes pretty tough to play. They were injured off and on last year, but if they can stay in the lineup for most of the season, expect a good playoff run.
4. New Orleans - They had a nice draft taking Julian Wright, and he’ll fit in nicely with this athletic team. Chris Paul has truly become a standout player in this league, and he’s the reason they’ll win games. But nagging injuries and inconsistency on the defense proved killer last year for this team, and I don’t see them going anywhere in the western conference with pretty much the same team.
5. Memphis - The Grizzlies made their former Vancouver hometown proud last year, losing the most games of any team in the NBA. What changed? Not much at all. This team is gonna be pretty bad, again.
So, there you have it: here’s how the playoff picture will look:
East:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
1 -
Chicago               Â
2 - Miami
3 - New Jersey
4- Detroit
5- Boston
6- Cleveland
7- Toronto
8- Washington
- 1 Chicago over 8 Washington
- 2 Miami over 7 Toronto
- 6 Cleveland over 3 New Jersey
- 4 Detroit over 5 Boston
-Â 1 Chicago over 6 Cleveland
- 2 Miami over 2 Detroit
- 1 Chicago over 2 Miami
West:
1 - San Antonio
               Â
2 - Phoenix
3 - Denver
4- Dallas
5- Houston
6- Utah
7- LA Clippers
8- LA Lakers
- 1 San Antonio over 8 LA Lakers
- 2 Phoenix over 7 LA Clippers
- 6 Utah over 3 Denver
- 4 Dallas over 5 Houston
- 1 San Antonio over 6 Utah
- 2 Phoenix over 4 Dallas
- 1 San Antonio over 2 Phoenix
FINALS: 1 San Antonio over 1 Chicago
Sure its cliche to pick the Spurs to win again, and kind of annoying. They’re a boring team. But, if you’ve watched the past 6 or 7 years of NBA basketball, it’s pretty dumb not to pick them in the preseason. Tracy McGrady will unfortunately lose in the 1st round again, while Phoenix comes oh so close yet again. And the bottom line again, of course, is that the East stinks.
i agree with a lot of what you predict - but i don’t see denver anywhere near 3 in the west, more like 6 - and i don’t see miami above 5 in the east as shaq continues to age and wade isn’t healthy - but i am glad that eric montross’ greatness has finally been recognized
[...] Figure 1 : Aaron’s NBA Division Predictions, October 29 2007 [...]